电影行业：消费大众化国产电影步入黄金时代

www.yingfu001.com 2013-09-05 16:25　赢富财经我要评论

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<h2>中国电影的烂片吸金时代到来？</h2>
<p>　　　　中国电影和中国的电影圈从来都不缺少话题，最近一年“票房”、“烂片”、“网络营销”成为了最受争议和最受关注的关键词。　　就在最近时间《富春山居图》、《小时代》的上映，引发的这阵网络上关于“烂片”的大讨论。使得网民们再一次的感叹：中国电影的“传奇”只能用“烂片”来书写了。烂片已经是没有最烂，只有更烂了。“烂片只有票房没有内涵”，“丢国产电影的脸”，“只要钱不要好电影”……的言论不绝于耳。</p>
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<p>　　国内电影行业正经历观众换代，80、90后成长为主流观影人群，二三线城市观众票房贡献比重增加，带动贴合本土文化的国产电影快速崛起。</p>
<p>　　但单纯的内容制作公司针对上下游议价能力较弱，盈利稳定性差，结合好莱坞经验，产业链延伸打造综合型娱乐传媒集团为发展方向。</p>
<p>　　现阶段，影视内容制作公司之间的竞争正在超越单个项目的竞争，日益转变为产业链之间的竞争，基于此框架，建议关注影视行业核心业务稳健，产业链逐步完善的龙头公司：光线传媒、华谊兄弟和华策影视。</p><strong>
<p>　　<strong>投资</strong>理由</strong></p>
<p>　　过去三年，银幕数持续高增长，向三四线城市渗透，平均票价相对降低，助推电影消费触及大众人群。2010年以来，我国银幕数量连续3年增速保持在30%以上，并向三四线城市渗透，增加大众人群观影便利性。电影票价虽绝对变化幅度不大，但伴随居民收入水平的提升及物价的上涨，电影票价相对不再昂贵。电影消费正逐步脱离高端，走向大众。</p>
<p>　　未来三年，在电影消费大众化趋势下，观众换代，发行成本下降，给符合大众口味的国产电影带来高速发展机会。国内19-35岁人群已经占据整体观影人群的76%，80、90后正成长为电影消费中坚力量。国产电影由于贴合本土观众，尤其是三四线观众需求，获得更大市场空间。且数字化放映使得电影发行摆脱了成本高昂的拷贝(每个拷贝800-1000元，仅能分发2-3个影院)，一方面降低电影发行成本，另一方面提升了影院排片自由度，促进国产电影投资增多。加之《泰囧》的示范效应和国内资本密集效应，契合本土大众观众口味的国产电影有望在未来三年维持高速发展。</p>
<p>　　长期来看，综合型传媒集团架构下的电影公司是本土公司未来发展趋势。电影消费属于B2C模式，收入不确定性高。好莱坞经验表明：垂直一体化的生态链，才能使内容价值最大化，综合性娱乐传媒集团是发展的必由之路。现有影视公司，依托原有业务竞争优势，从不同的角度借助资本进行垂直一体化的延伸，是未来主要的发展路径。</p>
<p>　　<strong>盈利预测与估值</strong></p>
<p>　　影视行业13-14年平均PE约为53X和42X，位于板块中部。未来3-5年，先行龙头将享受行业高增长，不断整合产业链，加速外延并购或带来龙头业绩超预期。</p>
<p>　　<strong>风险</strong></p>
<p>　　1)单个影视项目盈利不确定性；2)政策审查风险；3)并购整合风险。</p>
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